This year's lithium electric two wheeled vehicle market is particularly hot, forming a distinct ice and fire scene with the cold automobile industry. It once reminds people of the disturbance of the electric vehicle industry / payment before delivery, no subsidy and other policies.

        It is estimated that the total battery demand of two wheeled vehicles in 2020 will be about 83gwh (lead acid + lithium battery) according to the proportion of lithium battery about 10%; in addition, according to the estimation of experts from Yadi, the actual lead-acid battery market will reach 100GWh every year (annual new increment + battery replacement of existing models).

        What's the concept? In the whole year of 2019, the total battery sales of domestic electric vehicles are only 62.4gwh, and the global sales are 116.6gwh.

        Some small pack companies can run hundreds of millions of dollars a year. With the efforts of BMS companies, they can also reach 30 million and 50 million revenue, which makes many people in the electric vehicle industry smell business opportunities and start to speed up their entry into this field. Soon, ABC (ATL, BYD, catl) three giants are coming to the city and officially enter the market.

        First battle: lithium and lead acid

        The market is a life and death place. The plate is so big. If lithium battery wants to have more market share, it can only snatch from the rice bowl of lead-acid enterprises. This battle is a battle between new and old technology routes, a battle between new and old forces. It is a battle between Tianneng Chaowei and all lithium battery enterprises. It is also a battle between Tianneng Chaowei and other two enterprises.

        At present, Tianneng Chaowei is in a bad situation. Their power and speed in lithium battery are too slow. According to Tianneng's report in 2019, the revenue of lithium battery products accounts for 1.7% of the total revenue, compared with 1.4% in 2018.

        Therefore, if there is no special use demand, such as take away, which needs long-term service, consumers will be greatly influenced by the low price when they buy. If they spend 20 cents or 60 cents to buy it, many consumers will not care too much about it and consider that lithium batteries can be used for several more years in the long run.

        There is a variable that may increase the speed of this campaign, that is, whether the lithium battery enterprises will play a price war first, like Tianneng and Chaowei in those years, and then sweep out other small-scale enterprises, and then raise the price again. That is to spend money and buy the market. At present, this strategy is not optimal. Especially for ABC, all of them are listed companies or controlled by listed companies, and Xingheng may also be listed. For a price war, none of the four companies will be deterred, and they are not short of money for a short time.

        If we really start a price war, together with Tianneng and Chaowei, it will be a rare business fight!

        Another material route, Sanyuan, which is quite dominant in the electric vehicle industry, is not optimistic about its application in e-bikes due to the safety problem of thermal runaway. However, it will not be completely out of the market. There is still demand in individual segments.

        The Third Battle: the battle of size and standard

        Due to the various shapes and sizes of lithium batteries, it seems that the two wheeled vehicle can not avoid the problem encountered in electric vehicles, that is, whether it needs standardization.

        To a certain extent, this is a cost problem. Lead acid has been standardized. If the cost of lithium battery is to accelerate, the standardization of the industry must be the most important card.

        Where there is lithium, there is the river and lake. Goodbye to the river and lake!